Donald Trump’s latest remarks on nuclear testing have set off concerns that stretch far beyond Washington. In an interview on CBS News’ 60 Minutes, the US President claimed that Pakistan, along with Russia, China, and North Korea, has been conducting nuclear tests, an assertion Trump used to justify America’s decision to resume its own testing after more than three decades.
It was a claim that immediately drew confusion, scepticism, and concern.
“Russia’s testing and China’s testing, but they don’t talk about it. We’re an open society. We’re different. We talk about it because otherwise you people are going to report. They don’t have reporters that are going to be writing about it,” Trump said in his interview. “We’re going to test because they test and others test. And certainly North Korea’s been testing. Pakistan’s been testing.”
Just minutes before meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, Trump had posted on social media that he was ordering the resumption of nuclear testing, a statement that startled US officials and even contained factual errors. Trump referred to the “Department of War” instead of the Department of Defense and claimed that the US had the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, when in fact Russia holds that distinction.
But beyond the drama in Washington, Trump’s remarks drew attention to South Asia. If Pakistan is indeed “testing” nuclear weapons, as Trump suggested, what does that mean for India -- and where does the balance of power currently stand between the two long-time nuclear rivals?
Also Read: Putin warns Russia may commence nuke tests after Trump threat
The India–Pakistan nuclear equation
According to the latest Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) yearbook, both India and Pakistan continued to refine their nuclear arsenals and delivery systems through 2024.
SIPRI estimates that as of January 2025, India possesses around 180 nuclear warheads, up slightly from 172 the previous year. Pakistan’s stockpile is estimated at 170 warheads, roughly the same as last year.
India’s arsenal is assigned to what SIPRI calls a “maturing nuclear triad” -- the ability to launch weapons from land, sea, and air. This triad gives India flexible deterrence and enhances second-strike capability, ensuring that it can respond even if its land-based forces are hit first.
The report also highlights that India’s traditional practice has been to store warheads separately from their launchers during peacetime, signalling a cautious approach. However, recent developments, including canisterised missiles and sea-based deterrence patrols, suggest a shift toward higher readiness, SIPRI informed.
“India could be shifting in the direction of mating some of its warheads with their launchers in peacetime,” SIPRI observed.
The commissioning of INS Arighaat, India’s second indigenously built nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), at Visakhapatnam last year marked another leap forward. This vessel is part of the Arihant-class series, with the first being INS Arihant (S-2). The third submarine, Aridaman (S-4), is expected to be commissioned later this year, followed by S-4*, giving India a fleet of four to six SSBNs once the programme is complete.
Only five other countries -- the US, Russia, China, the UK, and France -- currently possess operational nuclear-armed submarines. This development positions India firmly within an elite strategic group capable of underwater nuclear deterrence.
On the missile front, India’s Agni-5, equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, represents a major technological advancement. MIRVs allow one missile to carry several nuclear warheads that can strike different targets hundreds of kilometres apart -- a capability that multiplies destructive potential and complicates enemy defence planning.
However, India’s nuclear doctrine, announced in 2003, remains anchored in a “no first use” policy: nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation to a nuclear attack. Retaliation, the doctrine states, would be “massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage.” All such decisions are vested in the Nuclear Command Authority, where the Prime Minister chairs the political council and the National Security Advisor chairs the executive council.
Also Read: Trump, tremors and tests: Mystery of Pak nukes deepens
While Pakistan remains the principal focus of India’s deterrence, SIPRI noted that New Delhi is placing “growing emphasis on longer-range weapons capable of reaching targets throughout China.” This strategic adjustment reflects India’s shifting security calculus amid an assertive China, whose nuclear arsenal now dwarfs those of both its South Asian neighbours.
SIPRI’s findings coincided with a tense year for South Asia. India’s Operation Sindoor, launched in May 2025, targeted terror and military installations in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir after the Pahalgam attack, which killed 26 people.
The strikes triggered a four-day confrontation involving fighter jets, drones, long-range missiles, and heavy artillery, marking one of the most intense India–Pakistan military face-offs since Balakot.
Though conventional, the skirmish reinforced how quickly regional crises can escalate under a nuclear shadow -- a reality both sides have learned to manage, but never fully escape.
Pakistan’s posture and projections
Pakistan’s arsenal, meanwhile, has held steady at around 170 warheads, but its delivery capabilities have been evolving. SIPRI notes that Islamabad has continued to work on a nascent triad -- aircraft, land-based ballistic and cruise missiles, and sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs).
Pakistan’s advances in fissile material production and development of multiple delivery systems suggest that its nuclear capacity could grow over the next decade, though precise projections are difficult due to the absence of official disclosures. Its strategy continues to revolve around maintaining credible deterrence against India’s larger conventional and nuclear forces.
China’s growing influence
China’s nuclear modernisation adds another layer of complexity. SIPRI estimates China’s arsenal at 600 warheads as of early 2025 -- up from 500 the previous year -- making it the fastest-growing nuclear power in the world. The report warned that depending on how Beijing structures its forces, it could possess as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as the US or Russia by the end of the decade, even if its total warhead count remains smaller.
This expansion has prompted regional powers like India to modernise their own systems to avoid strategic imbalance.
As SIPRI cautioned, “the rise in the number of states with multiple-warhead programmes could potentially lead to a rapid increase in deployed warheads and allow nuclear-armed states to threaten the destruction of significantly more targets.”
A world at a crossroads
Globally, the US and Russia still hold the lion’s share of nuclear weapons -- 5,459 and 5,177, respectively. But the broader trend is one of modernisation, not reduction. Trump’s suggestion that others are secretly testing nuclear weapons may be inaccurate, but it taps into a deeper unease: the gradual erosion of the informal moratorium that has defined the post-Cold War nuclear order.
As per The New York Times, experts warn that if the US were to resume explosive testing, it could trigger a domino effect -- giving political and military justification to other nuclear-armed states, including those in South Asia, to follow suit.
“Why would we want to open the Pandora’s box to give other nuclear states the excuse to go testing?” asked John F. Tierney, executive director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, told NYT.
The takeaway
Donald Trump’s offhand remark about Pakistan “testing nuclear weapons” might seem like one of his many rhetorical provocations, but it highlights a dangerous drift in the global nuclear landscape. The boundaries that once separated rhetoric from readiness, simulation from detonation, and deterrence from escalation are becoming blurred.
In South Asia, where two nuclear-armed neighbours live in uneasy proximity, those blurred lines carry existential stakes. India’s triad is nearing maturity; Pakistan’s deterrent is evolving; China’s arsenal is expanding.
It was a claim that immediately drew confusion, scepticism, and concern.
“Russia’s testing and China’s testing, but they don’t talk about it. We’re an open society. We’re different. We talk about it because otherwise you people are going to report. They don’t have reporters that are going to be writing about it,” Trump said in his interview. “We’re going to test because they test and others test. And certainly North Korea’s been testing. Pakistan’s been testing.”
Just minutes before meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, Trump had posted on social media that he was ordering the resumption of nuclear testing, a statement that startled US officials and even contained factual errors. Trump referred to the “Department of War” instead of the Department of Defense and claimed that the US had the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, when in fact Russia holds that distinction.
But beyond the drama in Washington, Trump’s remarks drew attention to South Asia. If Pakistan is indeed “testing” nuclear weapons, as Trump suggested, what does that mean for India -- and where does the balance of power currently stand between the two long-time nuclear rivals?
Also Read: Putin warns Russia may commence nuke tests after Trump threat
The India–Pakistan nuclear equation
According to the latest Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) yearbook, both India and Pakistan continued to refine their nuclear arsenals and delivery systems through 2024.
SIPRI estimates that as of January 2025, India possesses around 180 nuclear warheads, up slightly from 172 the previous year. Pakistan’s stockpile is estimated at 170 warheads, roughly the same as last year.
India’s arsenal is assigned to what SIPRI calls a “maturing nuclear triad” -- the ability to launch weapons from land, sea, and air. This triad gives India flexible deterrence and enhances second-strike capability, ensuring that it can respond even if its land-based forces are hit first.
The report also highlights that India’s traditional practice has been to store warheads separately from their launchers during peacetime, signalling a cautious approach. However, recent developments, including canisterised missiles and sea-based deterrence patrols, suggest a shift toward higher readiness, SIPRI informed.
“India could be shifting in the direction of mating some of its warheads with their launchers in peacetime,” SIPRI observed.
The commissioning of INS Arighaat, India’s second indigenously built nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), at Visakhapatnam last year marked another leap forward. This vessel is part of the Arihant-class series, with the first being INS Arihant (S-2). The third submarine, Aridaman (S-4), is expected to be commissioned later this year, followed by S-4*, giving India a fleet of four to six SSBNs once the programme is complete.
Only five other countries -- the US, Russia, China, the UK, and France -- currently possess operational nuclear-armed submarines. This development positions India firmly within an elite strategic group capable of underwater nuclear deterrence.
On the missile front, India’s Agni-5, equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, represents a major technological advancement. MIRVs allow one missile to carry several nuclear warheads that can strike different targets hundreds of kilometres apart -- a capability that multiplies destructive potential and complicates enemy defence planning.
However, India’s nuclear doctrine, announced in 2003, remains anchored in a “no first use” policy: nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation to a nuclear attack. Retaliation, the doctrine states, would be “massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage.” All such decisions are vested in the Nuclear Command Authority, where the Prime Minister chairs the political council and the National Security Advisor chairs the executive council.
Also Read: Trump, tremors and tests: Mystery of Pak nukes deepens
While Pakistan remains the principal focus of India’s deterrence, SIPRI noted that New Delhi is placing “growing emphasis on longer-range weapons capable of reaching targets throughout China.” This strategic adjustment reflects India’s shifting security calculus amid an assertive China, whose nuclear arsenal now dwarfs those of both its South Asian neighbours.
SIPRI’s findings coincided with a tense year for South Asia. India’s Operation Sindoor, launched in May 2025, targeted terror and military installations in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir after the Pahalgam attack, which killed 26 people.
The strikes triggered a four-day confrontation involving fighter jets, drones, long-range missiles, and heavy artillery, marking one of the most intense India–Pakistan military face-offs since Balakot.
Though conventional, the skirmish reinforced how quickly regional crises can escalate under a nuclear shadow -- a reality both sides have learned to manage, but never fully escape.
Pakistan’s posture and projections
Pakistan’s arsenal, meanwhile, has held steady at around 170 warheads, but its delivery capabilities have been evolving. SIPRI notes that Islamabad has continued to work on a nascent triad -- aircraft, land-based ballistic and cruise missiles, and sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs).
Pakistan’s advances in fissile material production and development of multiple delivery systems suggest that its nuclear capacity could grow over the next decade, though precise projections are difficult due to the absence of official disclosures. Its strategy continues to revolve around maintaining credible deterrence against India’s larger conventional and nuclear forces.
China’s growing influence
China’s nuclear modernisation adds another layer of complexity. SIPRI estimates China’s arsenal at 600 warheads as of early 2025 -- up from 500 the previous year -- making it the fastest-growing nuclear power in the world. The report warned that depending on how Beijing structures its forces, it could possess as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as the US or Russia by the end of the decade, even if its total warhead count remains smaller.
This expansion has prompted regional powers like India to modernise their own systems to avoid strategic imbalance.
As SIPRI cautioned, “the rise in the number of states with multiple-warhead programmes could potentially lead to a rapid increase in deployed warheads and allow nuclear-armed states to threaten the destruction of significantly more targets.”
A world at a crossroads
Globally, the US and Russia still hold the lion’s share of nuclear weapons -- 5,459 and 5,177, respectively. But the broader trend is one of modernisation, not reduction. Trump’s suggestion that others are secretly testing nuclear weapons may be inaccurate, but it taps into a deeper unease: the gradual erosion of the informal moratorium that has defined the post-Cold War nuclear order.
As per The New York Times, experts warn that if the US were to resume explosive testing, it could trigger a domino effect -- giving political and military justification to other nuclear-armed states, including those in South Asia, to follow suit.
“Why would we want to open the Pandora’s box to give other nuclear states the excuse to go testing?” asked John F. Tierney, executive director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, told NYT.
The takeaway
Donald Trump’s offhand remark about Pakistan “testing nuclear weapons” might seem like one of his many rhetorical provocations, but it highlights a dangerous drift in the global nuclear landscape. The boundaries that once separated rhetoric from readiness, simulation from detonation, and deterrence from escalation are becoming blurred.
In South Asia, where two nuclear-armed neighbours live in uneasy proximity, those blurred lines carry existential stakes. India’s triad is nearing maturity; Pakistan’s deterrent is evolving; China’s arsenal is expanding.
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