History has a weird fondness for tragic repetition. When in the Oval Office, President Donald Trump was seated like a benevolent Caesar, flanked on either side by Pakistan’s powerless civilian face and its real sovereign, one could almost hear the rustle of old Cold War scripts being dusted off.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stood obediently, smiling like a dinner guest unsure of what he would be served. Next to him, Field Marshal Asim Munir, with his fifth star polished for maximum optical effect, pointed triumphantly to a box of rocks.
They called them “rare earth minerals.” But let us not be distracted by geology masquerading as statecraft.
This was a reunion Pakistan’s ruling elite was waiting for a long time. It was a nostalgic embrace between the American security establishment and its long-time Frankenstein’s monster in khaki.
Washington, which not long ago saw New Delhi as a democratic counterweight to authoritarian Beijing and was disillusioned with Islamabad for being an unreliable partner in combating terrorism, is making a dramatic, abrupt and absurd U-turn in its South Asian policy, one that threatens to end its so-called “strategic altruism” towards India.
In the tradition of post-colonial statecraft, Pakistan has once again mastered the alchemy of strategic exaggeration. Field Marshal Munir presented rare earth elements to Trump as if unveiling the Rosetta Stone. The implication was patent: Pakistan, once merely the “most allied ally” of the United States, now seeks rebranding as the Saudi Arabia of strategic minerals.
However, the inconvenient geological fact has not disappeared. Pakistan has no proven large-scale oil reserves, and its mineral potential remains only “potential.” Decades of exploratory drilling has turned up nothing substantial. Still, why let empirical data get in the way of an American handshake? Trump, ever the showman and never the statesman, seems impressed. In a world increasingly hungry for strategic clarity, fantasy often provides a more appetising narrative than fact.
Only in Pakistan could geopolitical incompetence be repackaged as diplomatic triumph. Having miserably failed to build a stable democracy, unable to control insurgencies in its own mineral-rich Balochistan, and boasting the economic credibility of a casino in Pyongyang, Islamabad has still managed to re-enter America’s strategic bloodstream like a narcotic.
This is a state that has defaulted on nearly every serious attempt at reform, whether political, economic or institutional. And yet, every time the global order creaks, Islamabad resurfaces. One decade it is “frontline ally” in the war on terror, in the next, perhaps a “guardian of rare earths.”
After decades of transactional diplomacy, military coups, regional wars, double games with jihadists and IMF bailouts, the fantasy that Pakistan can be a reliable partner tells us more about Washington’s memory lapses than Islamabad’s cunning.
A country that harboured Osama bin Laden and manufactured jihad as a state policy is now being courted for its minerals. Is this logic realistic? Actually, it is as much about American hedge against China as about Pakistani general’s enduring knack to satisfy the American leader’s ego. But most importantly, Munir is being persuaded to offer boots for Gaza so America’s can stay spotless.
This is ironic because a nation whose streets often erupt in protest at every Israeli airstrike on Gaza may be preparing its army to serve as Trump’s enthusiastic subcontractor in the rubble of Palestine. Munir’s Gaza gambit will also win him Washington’s approval for a smooth career extension. And Trump is equally keen to exploit Pakistan’s disillusionment with the Afghan Taliban to get back the Bagram airbase.
We should have no doubt that Asim Munir is the spiritual successor to Zia-ul-Haq, unaccountable to any democratic institution in his country. He is the cleric in camouflage, constantly stressing that his struggle against India is righteous and moral. A ‘Hafiz-e-Quran’, he is no strongman hiding behind modernity, but a true believer in divine disruption.
His version of regional strategy does not come from Clausewitz but from hope of a repeat of Muhammad Ghori’s one fateful win after multiple defeats against Prithviraj Chauhan. Munir believes his moment has arrived to emulate Ghori’s persistence, embodying an ominous blend of fanaticism and fantasy. And this is the man the Trump White House has begun to greet with red carpets and closed-door sessions.
For India, this is instructive. It reminds us once again that peace with Pakistan is a metaphysical impossibility. The Pakistani Army’s very survival depends on India’s imagined aggression. Remove the Indian “threat,” and GHQ Rawalpindi becomes an overstretched bureaucracy in uniform, not the ideological nucleus of the state.
To mask his ideological ambitions and avoid global condemnation as a land-grabber, Munir is cynically weaponising the discredited ‘Two-Nation Theory’ in a desperate bid to justify Pakistan’s illegitimate claims over Kashmir. Unfortunately, Trump’s embrace of Munir only validates this delusion. And therefore, Pakistan will continue to fuel cross-border terror, invoke Ghazwa-e-Hind fantasies, and rent out its military to the highest Gulf bidder.
The recent Pakistan-Saudi Strategic Defence Pact is more an insurance scam. Saudi Arabia, seeing an unreliable US, is seeking regional mercenaries. Pakistan, long the standby supplier, has gladly complied. Is this a game-changer? Not exactly. It is a game-resumer.
Riyadh and Islamabad have danced to this duet before. What is new is the optics and the timing. With India attempting to isolate Pakistan diplomatically after the Pahalgam terror attacks, the Saudis have handed Rawalpindi a lifeline stamped with pan-Islamic platitudes.
Riyadh is acutely aware of two strategic realities: first, the ideological apparatus in Pakistan has always imagined the state as an integral part of the global Muslim community; and second, Pakistan’s military remains the only credible, rent-ready Islamic force.
The second aspect is particularly crucial. Saudi Arabia is the critical element in Trump’s Gaza plan because eventually Riyadh will be funding the stabilisation operation, outsourcing its own moral burdens to Pakistan. In the Pakistan army, Riyadh gets a “Muslim force” to manage Gaza without dirtying its thaw with Tel Aviv.
In his second tenure, Trump has prioritised disruption as his signature strategy, and India is being reprimanded not for buying Russian oil (because China is also buying), but for its refusal to do heavy lifting in this game of disruption. India is neither a client state, nor does it exchange its sovereignty for aid. We do not send our army to do others’ dirty work. That is precisely why India should remain vigilant.
Because Washington, despite its rhetoric about Indo-Pacific strategy, seems to have fallen back on its Cold War muscle memory. When in doubt, the White House has often dialled Rawalpindi. On the other hand, India’s “argumentative” posture and deliberative rise frustrates American impatience.
The image of Trump, Munir and Shehbaz is a diagnostic lens of the dysfunctions that afflict global politics: nostalgia, opportunism, and the delusion that dictatorial regimes can produce stable outcomes. The fact of India and the US being the two largest democracies in the world, having shared values and interests is missing from Trump’s calculations.
That is why the Field Marshal was flaunting his rare earths and Trump was applauding like a leader unaware of the havoc his transactional approach is causing to America’s long-term strategic interests.
India’s answer to this posturing cannot be a louder megaphone. It must be a deeper strategy which means investing in deterrence, tightening global partnerships and shedding the last vestiges of indecision.
Vinay Kaura is Assistant Professor, Department of International Affairs and Security Studies, Sardar Patel University of Police, Security and Criminal Justice, Rajasthan.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com)
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stood obediently, smiling like a dinner guest unsure of what he would be served. Next to him, Field Marshal Asim Munir, with his fifth star polished for maximum optical effect, pointed triumphantly to a box of rocks.
They called them “rare earth minerals.” But let us not be distracted by geology masquerading as statecraft.
This was a reunion Pakistan’s ruling elite was waiting for a long time. It was a nostalgic embrace between the American security establishment and its long-time Frankenstein’s monster in khaki.
Washington, which not long ago saw New Delhi as a democratic counterweight to authoritarian Beijing and was disillusioned with Islamabad for being an unreliable partner in combating terrorism, is making a dramatic, abrupt and absurd U-turn in its South Asian policy, one that threatens to end its so-called “strategic altruism” towards India.
In the tradition of post-colonial statecraft, Pakistan has once again mastered the alchemy of strategic exaggeration. Field Marshal Munir presented rare earth elements to Trump as if unveiling the Rosetta Stone. The implication was patent: Pakistan, once merely the “most allied ally” of the United States, now seeks rebranding as the Saudi Arabia of strategic minerals.
However, the inconvenient geological fact has not disappeared. Pakistan has no proven large-scale oil reserves, and its mineral potential remains only “potential.” Decades of exploratory drilling has turned up nothing substantial. Still, why let empirical data get in the way of an American handshake? Trump, ever the showman and never the statesman, seems impressed. In a world increasingly hungry for strategic clarity, fantasy often provides a more appetising narrative than fact.
Only in Pakistan could geopolitical incompetence be repackaged as diplomatic triumph. Having miserably failed to build a stable democracy, unable to control insurgencies in its own mineral-rich Balochistan, and boasting the economic credibility of a casino in Pyongyang, Islamabad has still managed to re-enter America’s strategic bloodstream like a narcotic.
This is a state that has defaulted on nearly every serious attempt at reform, whether political, economic or institutional. And yet, every time the global order creaks, Islamabad resurfaces. One decade it is “frontline ally” in the war on terror, in the next, perhaps a “guardian of rare earths.”
After decades of transactional diplomacy, military coups, regional wars, double games with jihadists and IMF bailouts, the fantasy that Pakistan can be a reliable partner tells us more about Washington’s memory lapses than Islamabad’s cunning.
A country that harboured Osama bin Laden and manufactured jihad as a state policy is now being courted for its minerals. Is this logic realistic? Actually, it is as much about American hedge against China as about Pakistani general’s enduring knack to satisfy the American leader’s ego. But most importantly, Munir is being persuaded to offer boots for Gaza so America’s can stay spotless.
This is ironic because a nation whose streets often erupt in protest at every Israeli airstrike on Gaza may be preparing its army to serve as Trump’s enthusiastic subcontractor in the rubble of Palestine. Munir’s Gaza gambit will also win him Washington’s approval for a smooth career extension. And Trump is equally keen to exploit Pakistan’s disillusionment with the Afghan Taliban to get back the Bagram airbase.
We should have no doubt that Asim Munir is the spiritual successor to Zia-ul-Haq, unaccountable to any democratic institution in his country. He is the cleric in camouflage, constantly stressing that his struggle against India is righteous and moral. A ‘Hafiz-e-Quran’, he is no strongman hiding behind modernity, but a true believer in divine disruption.
His version of regional strategy does not come from Clausewitz but from hope of a repeat of Muhammad Ghori’s one fateful win after multiple defeats against Prithviraj Chauhan. Munir believes his moment has arrived to emulate Ghori’s persistence, embodying an ominous blend of fanaticism and fantasy. And this is the man the Trump White House has begun to greet with red carpets and closed-door sessions.
For India, this is instructive. It reminds us once again that peace with Pakistan is a metaphysical impossibility. The Pakistani Army’s very survival depends on India’s imagined aggression. Remove the Indian “threat,” and GHQ Rawalpindi becomes an overstretched bureaucracy in uniform, not the ideological nucleus of the state.
To mask his ideological ambitions and avoid global condemnation as a land-grabber, Munir is cynically weaponising the discredited ‘Two-Nation Theory’ in a desperate bid to justify Pakistan’s illegitimate claims over Kashmir. Unfortunately, Trump’s embrace of Munir only validates this delusion. And therefore, Pakistan will continue to fuel cross-border terror, invoke Ghazwa-e-Hind fantasies, and rent out its military to the highest Gulf bidder.
The recent Pakistan-Saudi Strategic Defence Pact is more an insurance scam. Saudi Arabia, seeing an unreliable US, is seeking regional mercenaries. Pakistan, long the standby supplier, has gladly complied. Is this a game-changer? Not exactly. It is a game-resumer.
Riyadh and Islamabad have danced to this duet before. What is new is the optics and the timing. With India attempting to isolate Pakistan diplomatically after the Pahalgam terror attacks, the Saudis have handed Rawalpindi a lifeline stamped with pan-Islamic platitudes.
Riyadh is acutely aware of two strategic realities: first, the ideological apparatus in Pakistan has always imagined the state as an integral part of the global Muslim community; and second, Pakistan’s military remains the only credible, rent-ready Islamic force.
The second aspect is particularly crucial. Saudi Arabia is the critical element in Trump’s Gaza plan because eventually Riyadh will be funding the stabilisation operation, outsourcing its own moral burdens to Pakistan. In the Pakistan army, Riyadh gets a “Muslim force” to manage Gaza without dirtying its thaw with Tel Aviv.
In his second tenure, Trump has prioritised disruption as his signature strategy, and India is being reprimanded not for buying Russian oil (because China is also buying), but for its refusal to do heavy lifting in this game of disruption. India is neither a client state, nor does it exchange its sovereignty for aid. We do not send our army to do others’ dirty work. That is precisely why India should remain vigilant.
Because Washington, despite its rhetoric about Indo-Pacific strategy, seems to have fallen back on its Cold War muscle memory. When in doubt, the White House has often dialled Rawalpindi. On the other hand, India’s “argumentative” posture and deliberative rise frustrates American impatience.
The image of Trump, Munir and Shehbaz is a diagnostic lens of the dysfunctions that afflict global politics: nostalgia, opportunism, and the delusion that dictatorial regimes can produce stable outcomes. The fact of India and the US being the two largest democracies in the world, having shared values and interests is missing from Trump’s calculations.
That is why the Field Marshal was flaunting his rare earths and Trump was applauding like a leader unaware of the havoc his transactional approach is causing to America’s long-term strategic interests.
India’s answer to this posturing cannot be a louder megaphone. It must be a deeper strategy which means investing in deterrence, tightening global partnerships and shedding the last vestiges of indecision.
Vinay Kaura is Assistant Professor, Department of International Affairs and Security Studies, Sardar Patel University of Police, Security and Criminal Justice, Rajasthan.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com)
You may also like
Durga Puja Festivities Concludes In Odisha's Twin Cities With Idol Immersion
Australia Women vs Sri Lanka Women Prediction Match 5, ICC Womens World Cup 2025 - Who will win today ENG-W vs SA-W match?
Euromillions Live: Full lottery results with Thunderball on October 3
Central employees will receive a Diwali bonus, but are you eligible? How to check?
Allen Solly Onboards Sania Mirza as Brand Ambassador for Womenswear
