What we know about how US government shutdown would unfold

The threat of a government shutdown has become a recurring event in Washington, though most of the time lawmakers and the president are able to head it off. This time, however, prospects for a last-minute compromise look rather bleak.

Republicans have crafted a short-term measure to fund the government through November 21, but Democrats have insisted that the measure address their concerns on health care.

They want to reverse the Medicaid cuts in President Donald Trump's mega-bill passed this summer as well as extend tax credits that make health insurance premiums more affordable for millions who purchase through the marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act. Republicans say that's all a non-starter.

Neither side is showing any signs of budging, with the House not even expected to be in session before a shutdown has begun.

Here's a look at how a shutdown would occur.

What happens in a shutdown?

When a lapse in funding occurs, the law requires agencies to cease activity and furlough their "non-excepted" employees. Excepted employees include those who perform work to protect life and property. They stay on the job but don't get paid until after the shutdown has ended.

During the 35-day partial shutdown in Trump's first term, roughly 340,000 of the 800,000 federal workers at affected agencies were furloughed. The remainder were "excepted" and required to work.

What government work continues during a shutdown?

A great deal, actually.

FBI investigators, CIA officers, air traffic controllers and agents manning airport checkpoints continue to work. So do members of the Armed Forces.

Those programmes that rely on mandatory spending also generally continue during a shutdown. Social Security checks continue to go out. Seniors who rely on Medicare coverage can still go see their doctor and health care providers can still submit claims for payment and be reimbursed.

Veteran health care also continues during a shutdown. VA medical centres and outpatient clinics will be open and VA benefits will continue to be processed and delivered. Burials will continue at VA national cemeteries.

Will furloughed federal workers get paid?

Yes, but not until the shutdown is over.

Congress has historically acted after shutdowns to pay federal workers for the days they were furloughed, though there were no guarantees it would do so.

In 2019, however, Congress passed a bill enshrining into law the requirement that furloughed employees get retroactive pay once operations resume.

While they will eventually get paid, the furloughed workers as well as those who remain on the job may have to go without one or more of their regular paychecks, depending upon how long the shutdown lasts, which will create financial stress for many families.

Service members would receive back pay for any missed paychecks once federal funding resumes.

Will I still get mail?

Yes, the US Postal Service is not affected by a government shutdown. The US Postal Service is an independent entity that is funded through the sale of its products and services, and not by tax dollars.

What closes during a shutdown?

All administrations get some leeway to choose which services to freeze and which to maintain in a shutdown.

The first Trump administration worked to blunt the impact of what became the country's longest partial shutdown in 2018 and 2019. But in the selective reopening of offices, experts say they saw a willingness to cut corners, scrap prior plans and wade into legally dubious territory to mitigate the pain.

Each federal agency develops its own shutdown plan that in the past was accessible on the Office of Management and Budget's public website. So far, those plans have not been posted. The plans outline which agency workers would stay on the job during a government shutdown and which would be furloughed.

In a provocative move, the White House's Office of Management and Budget has threatened the mass firing of federal workers in the event of a shutdown. An OMB memo released Wednesday said those programmes that did not get funding through Trump's mega-bill this summer would bear the brunt of a shutdown.

Agencies should consider issuing reduction-in-force notices for those programmes whose funding expires October 1, that don't have alternative funding sources and are "not consistent with the President's priorities," the memo said.

That would be a much more aggressive step than in previous shutdowns when furloughed federal workers returned to their jobs once Congress approved government spending.

A reduction in force would not only lay off employees but eliminate their positions, which would trigger yet another massive upheaval in a federal workforce that has already faced major rounds of cuts this year due to efforts from the Department of Government Efficiency and elsewhere in the Trump administration.