Thailand Loses Its PM Again

Where the courts and the military in Southeast Asia’s 2nd largest economy amuse themselves in a perennial game of musical chairs, the country’s premiers merely rise and fall. The dismissal of Thailand’s youngest prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, on Friday has kept the scoreboard ticking for nearly 2 decades on the nation’s leaders deposed by the Constitutional Court. The daughter and protégé of billionaire former business tycoon and ex-premier, Thaksin Shinawatra, Ms Paetongtarn was removed in connection with a leaked telephone conversation she had had with Phnom Penh’s former leader and current president of the senate, Hun Sen, in June. The adverse verdict against her on Friday comes almost within a year of the court’s termination from office of her predecessor for appointing a tainted politician as justice minister.

The premature exit of Paetongtarn from high office has sparked fresh political uncertainty in the country, just weeks after the border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia dislocated millions. As parliament convenes this week in a special session to select the next PM, the intense jostling that has set off among bitter contenders is expected to be protracted. The Pheu Thai party of Thaksin Shinawatra, which heads the current governing coalition, insists it still commands a legislative majority. Thaksin himself recently earned a legal reprieve for the charge that he defamed the monarchy and awaits another ruling on whether his stay in hospital detention would count towards his prison sentence for graft.

Thaksin’s enormous clout with the country’s royalty and the military, despite his long self-imposed exile following his ouster in a 2006 coup, will be put to the test in the coming weeks. Pheu Thai could be a prominent force, one the establishment would count on to help forestall an early election that is being demanded by the People’s Party (PP). PP emerged as the largest force in the 2023 polls but was blocked by the court and eventually banned.

Thailand Constitutional Court Dismisses PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra For Ethics Violation Amid Border Row

Meanwhile, Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, the second largest in the current coalition, which quit the government following Paetongtarn’s controversial phone call, has staked his party’s claims to form the new government. The Bhumjaithai party has even pledged an early dissolution of parliament in an apparent bid to woo PP. Anutin’s potential elevation could, however, encounter huge obstacles from Thailand’s formidable conservative establishment, given his record of decriminalisation of medical cannabis, which has led to the mushrooming of outlets for recreational purposes. The ultimate arbiter that determines the political landscape in Thailand is, of course, the deep nexus between the kingdom’s royal establishment and the military that have long exerted a disproportionate influence on the polity.

The end to the current impasse could at best be temporary, unless there is a genuine commitment to adherence to the constitutionally ordained checks and balances and respect for the judiciary’s independence.